Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD holds steady below $2,650 ahead of US PMI data
- Gold price trades on a flat note near $2,650 in Monday's early Asian session.
- Huge demand from central banks and safe-haven flows could support Gold price, but Trump's tariff plan might cap its upside.
- Investors brace for the preliminary US December PMI data, which is due on Monday.
The Gold price (XAU/USD) trades flat around $2,650 during the early Asian session on Monday. However, strong central bank buying and ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could underpin the precious metal in the near term. Investors await the preliminary US December Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for fresh impetus, which is due later on Monday.
Significant demand from central banks lifts the yellow metal price. Central banks have been net buyers of gold for nearly 15 years, emphasizing its value as a crisis hedge and a reliable reserve asset. According to the World Gold Council, the precious metal is expected to rise modestly in 2025 due to central bank actions, geopolitical tensions, and economic conditions in key markets like the US, China, and India.
On Sunday, Israel's government approved a plan to double its population in the occupied Golan Heights, citing threats from Syria, per Reuters. Any signs of escalating geopolitical tensions in this region could boost a flight to safe assets, benefiting the Gold price.
On the flip side, US President-elect Donald Trump's tariff plan would stoke further inflation and delay the Federal Reserve (Fed) easing policy. Additionally, the robust US economy could lift the US Dollar (USD) and undermine the USD-denominated commodity price as it increases the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion. "Generally speaking, we see a stronger U.S. economy next year, which should leave less room for rate cuts and should thus bring less tailwinds for gold," said Carsten Menke, an analyst at Julius Baer.
Gold traders will closely watch the Fed meeting on Wednesday, which is anticipated to cut the interest rates by 25 basis points (bps). The attention will be on Chair Jerome Powell's speech, as it might offer some hints about US monetary policy for 2025.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.