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29 May 2013
Flash: Breaking down Asian exports by destination - Nomura
FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - Nomura economist Rob Subbaraman notes that there has been a broad-based weakening, but intra-Asian exports are holding up best.
He begins by commenting that exports from Asia, the world's manufacturing hub, are often regarded as a bellwether for the health of the global economy. He estimates that on a 3-month moving-average basis, growth of Asia ex-Japan's aggregate exports slowed from 9.5% y-o-y in March to 3.8% in April. Further, he feels that when examining Asian exports by destination, he can see that growth in shipments to the US fell from 2.2% y-o-y in March to -2.8% in April, in line with his US team's view of a temporary soft patch in the US economy in Q2. Further, he notes that the deceleration in shipments to the EU deepened, from -2.9% y-o-y to -7.3%, reflecting the recession there spreading to core economies. The deceleration in shipments to Japan also deepened, from -4.2% y-o-y to -9.3%, probably reflecting JPY depreciation. He writes, “In contrast, intra-Asian trade has been quite resilient, with growth slowing from 18.2% y-o-y in March to a still-strong 12.6% in April. This is corroborating evidence that Asian domestic demand is holding up, buoyed by capital inflows, loose policies and low unemployment.”
He begins by commenting that exports from Asia, the world's manufacturing hub, are often regarded as a bellwether for the health of the global economy. He estimates that on a 3-month moving-average basis, growth of Asia ex-Japan's aggregate exports slowed from 9.5% y-o-y in March to 3.8% in April. Further, he feels that when examining Asian exports by destination, he can see that growth in shipments to the US fell from 2.2% y-o-y in March to -2.8% in April, in line with his US team's view of a temporary soft patch in the US economy in Q2. Further, he notes that the deceleration in shipments to the EU deepened, from -2.9% y-o-y to -7.3%, reflecting the recession there spreading to core economies. The deceleration in shipments to Japan also deepened, from -4.2% y-o-y to -9.3%, probably reflecting JPY depreciation. He writes, “In contrast, intra-Asian trade has been quite resilient, with growth slowing from 18.2% y-o-y in March to a still-strong 12.6% in April. This is corroborating evidence that Asian domestic demand is holding up, buoyed by capital inflows, loose policies and low unemployment.”