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5 Feb 2015
US jobless claims expected to retrace previous week’s plunge – DB
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Economists at Deutsche Bank explain that due to the weather and difficulty in seasonal adjustments, US jobless claims for the week ending 31st January are expected to retrace most of the previous week’s plunge.
Key Quotes
“Jobless claims for the week ending January 31 are expected to retrace most of the previous week’s plunge, which put the level of initial claims at a near 15-year low.”
“Given inclement weather this time of the year and the difficulty in seasonally adjusting the figures around holidays, claims are notoriously volatile. Hence, investors must focus on the four-week moving average, which fell 8k last week to 299k.”
“If claims rise to 295k this week, the moving average will slip another 3k to 296k.”
“As long as claims remain below 300k on a trend basis, we can be reasonably confident that monthly job growth will continue to average well over 200k.”
Key Quotes
“Jobless claims for the week ending January 31 are expected to retrace most of the previous week’s plunge, which put the level of initial claims at a near 15-year low.”
“Given inclement weather this time of the year and the difficulty in seasonally adjusting the figures around holidays, claims are notoriously volatile. Hence, investors must focus on the four-week moving average, which fell 8k last week to 299k.”
“If claims rise to 295k this week, the moving average will slip another 3k to 296k.”
“As long as claims remain below 300k on a trend basis, we can be reasonably confident that monthly job growth will continue to average well over 200k.”