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26 Feb 2015
US inflation figures in the limelight – Deutsche Bank
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Analysts at Deutsche Bank assesse the upcoming key inflation figures in the US economy.
Key Quotes
“The most important number today will likely be US CPI where the headline YoY rate is predicted to be negative by the market (-0.1%) for the first time since 2009”.
“Over this period the YoY rate stayed negative for 8 months. However before this we hadn't seen a full year decline since August 1955. So these continue to be unusual times and with very few predicting inflation successfully over the last few months or even years it is hard to say with certainty where the bottom will be and how steep a recovery we'll see”.
“DB’s Joe Lavorgna noted yesterday that it typically takes one month for changes in oil prices to show up in CPI, so Joe believes that the February headline CPI will also likely be dampened by energy before stabilizing again in March. This means that unless oil prices make new lows, the direct negative effect from lower oil prices should have nearly run their course, so for energy to continue to weigh on the headline, then oil prices must remain in decline”.
Key Quotes
“The most important number today will likely be US CPI where the headline YoY rate is predicted to be negative by the market (-0.1%) for the first time since 2009”.
“Over this period the YoY rate stayed negative for 8 months. However before this we hadn't seen a full year decline since August 1955. So these continue to be unusual times and with very few predicting inflation successfully over the last few months or even years it is hard to say with certainty where the bottom will be and how steep a recovery we'll see”.
“DB’s Joe Lavorgna noted yesterday that it typically takes one month for changes in oil prices to show up in CPI, so Joe believes that the February headline CPI will also likely be dampened by energy before stabilizing again in March. This means that unless oil prices make new lows, the direct negative effect from lower oil prices should have nearly run their course, so for energy to continue to weigh on the headline, then oil prices must remain in decline”.