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18 Mar 2015
Key events ahead: FOMC meeting, UK budget and labour data – Danske
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Jens Nærvig Pedersen, Senior Analyst at Danske Bank, previews the key market moving events ahead in the day, noting that prime focus will be on the FOMC announcement and Fed’s view on USD strength and the view on ‘patient’.
Key Quotes
“The main event is the Fed’s announcement this evening. The statement and FOMC’s projections will be released at 19:00 CET and Yellen’s press briefing is scheduled to start at 19:30 CET.”
“We expect the key sentence that the Fed can afford to be ‘patient’ in normalising monetary policy to be removed from the statement. This will not signal an imminent hike but underscore that a rate hike is now on the agenda but timing will be data dependent.”
“Recent data have been soft, so it will also be interesting to see how the Fed balances between the recent soft data and the strong labour market. The impact from the strong USD could also attract some attention and Yellen will without doubt be asked to give her view at the press briefing.”
“In Europe there will be focus on the UK today. We expect the minutes from the February meeting to show that the MPC voted unanimously in favour of keeping the Bank Rate and the stock of purchased assets unchanged. The minutes will probably show relatively little concern about the recent decline in headline inflation driven largely by the lower oil price.”
“In the UK labour market data for February including unemployment and wage growth will also be released today. The labour market data in general could prove decisive for the timing of the first rate hike in the UK.”
“Finally, Chancellor George Osbourne will today present his final budget before the 7 May general election.”
“In Scandi markets, the focus will be on Danmarks Nationalbank that is scheduled to hold a press conference today at 10:30”
Key Quotes
“The main event is the Fed’s announcement this evening. The statement and FOMC’s projections will be released at 19:00 CET and Yellen’s press briefing is scheduled to start at 19:30 CET.”
“We expect the key sentence that the Fed can afford to be ‘patient’ in normalising monetary policy to be removed from the statement. This will not signal an imminent hike but underscore that a rate hike is now on the agenda but timing will be data dependent.”
“Recent data have been soft, so it will also be interesting to see how the Fed balances between the recent soft data and the strong labour market. The impact from the strong USD could also attract some attention and Yellen will without doubt be asked to give her view at the press briefing.”
“In Europe there will be focus on the UK today. We expect the minutes from the February meeting to show that the MPC voted unanimously in favour of keeping the Bank Rate and the stock of purchased assets unchanged. The minutes will probably show relatively little concern about the recent decline in headline inflation driven largely by the lower oil price.”
“In the UK labour market data for February including unemployment and wage growth will also be released today. The labour market data in general could prove decisive for the timing of the first rate hike in the UK.”
“Finally, Chancellor George Osbourne will today present his final budget before the 7 May general election.”
“In Scandi markets, the focus will be on Danmarks Nationalbank that is scheduled to hold a press conference today at 10:30”