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3 Apr 2015
NFP result at 245k will put June hike back on the cards – DB
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Alan Ruskin, Macro strategist at Deutsche Bank, explains that a 245k print of the US payrolls today will lead to a Q1 average of 260k, and put the June rate hike back in the picture.
Key Quotes
“Fed fund futures has less than a 20% probability of a June hike priced in. A number close to the 245K BBG median would still leave June very much in play. This is not least because 245K would mean a Q1 average of 260k which is exceptional by any standards and especially in the context of the polar vortex and Siberian express that tracked the East Coast.”
“In contrast, a meaningful downside surprise to the data, speaks to waning economic momentum, and fits with a Fed that will err on the dovish side until the economy proves itself.”
“Note a softer March number does not completely rule out a June hike IF April and May are strong.”
“Right now odds favor a September tightening, but put me down for June on a 245K type March payrolls number.”
Key Quotes
“Fed fund futures has less than a 20% probability of a June hike priced in. A number close to the 245K BBG median would still leave June very much in play. This is not least because 245K would mean a Q1 average of 260k which is exceptional by any standards and especially in the context of the polar vortex and Siberian express that tracked the East Coast.”
“In contrast, a meaningful downside surprise to the data, speaks to waning economic momentum, and fits with a Fed that will err on the dovish side until the economy proves itself.”
“Note a softer March number does not completely rule out a June hike IF April and May are strong.”
“Right now odds favor a September tightening, but put me down for June on a 245K type March payrolls number.”