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14 May 2015
Doubts on a September Fed rate hike – Nomura
FXStreet (Barcelona) - After the dismal retail sales report and the weak recovery in domestic demand, Economists at Nomura, note that the probability of a September rate hike by the Fed has somewhat lowered.
Key Quotes
“Given the retail sales report and other factors such as the wider-than-expected trade deficit in March, and the sharp increases in Treasury yields recently, the recovery in domestic demand appears to be somewhat more tenuous than we expected. This may also continue to impact the pace of labor market improvement going forward, which has slowed recently.”
“Taking this into consideration, we believe the probability of a rate hike in September is now somewhat lower, and the probability of a rate hike after September has somewhat increased.”
“However, we still believe that the probability that “liftoff” occurs this year is substantial—about 80%—and that the most likely timing of the first rate hike is September”
Key Quotes
“Given the retail sales report and other factors such as the wider-than-expected trade deficit in March, and the sharp increases in Treasury yields recently, the recovery in domestic demand appears to be somewhat more tenuous than we expected. This may also continue to impact the pace of labor market improvement going forward, which has slowed recently.”
“Taking this into consideration, we believe the probability of a rate hike in September is now somewhat lower, and the probability of a rate hike after September has somewhat increased.”
“However, we still believe that the probability that “liftoff” occurs this year is substantial—about 80%—and that the most likely timing of the first rate hike is September”