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25 Apr 2016
FOMC week: a non-event? - UOB
Analysts at UOB Group explained that the Fed Reserve has a meeting and a policy decision scheduled this coming week, but it is without any post FOMC press conference by Yellen or review of the FOMC economic projections.
Key Quotes:
"The markets may already view this as a non-event because based on trading in futures and options data compiled by Bloomberg, the probability of another Fed rate hike in April 2016 FOMC stayed unchanged at 0% (as of 22 April) which has been at 0% since the dovish speech by FOMC Chair Yellen on 29 March; whilst the chance of a June hike rose to 19.6% (from 13.6% on 18 April).
Perhaps there may be some indications within the FOMC statement to shed some light for the June FOMC outlook, but given the rather long gap of 6 weeks we are unlikely to get a lot of certainty on the timing of the next hike and instead, the officials will most likely continued to keep the next June meeting as a “live” possibility.
Note that there will be no senior Fed official speaking in public forums ahead of the FOMC decision. After the FOMC, we have Dallas Fed President Robert S. Kaplan (non-voter in 2016 FOMC) speaking in a public forum in London on Friday."
Key Quotes:
"The markets may already view this as a non-event because based on trading in futures and options data compiled by Bloomberg, the probability of another Fed rate hike in April 2016 FOMC stayed unchanged at 0% (as of 22 April) which has been at 0% since the dovish speech by FOMC Chair Yellen on 29 March; whilst the chance of a June hike rose to 19.6% (from 13.6% on 18 April).
Perhaps there may be some indications within the FOMC statement to shed some light for the June FOMC outlook, but given the rather long gap of 6 weeks we are unlikely to get a lot of certainty on the timing of the next hike and instead, the officials will most likely continued to keep the next June meeting as a “live” possibility.
Note that there will be no senior Fed official speaking in public forums ahead of the FOMC decision. After the FOMC, we have Dallas Fed President Robert S. Kaplan (non-voter in 2016 FOMC) speaking in a public forum in London on Friday."