Brexit: Anatomy of the polling mechanism - BNZ

Research Team at BNZ, suggests that the UK will hold a referendum on 23 June 2016 to decide if the United Kingdom will stay in or leave the European Union.

Key Quotes

“On the day – 23 June 2016

• The Electoral Commission has directed all counting officers to count (up to 44m votes) overnight on Thursday 23/Friday 24 June. All counts occur at the same time from 9:00am NZT (10:00pm UK time).
• Individual counting areas will start declaring totals in the early hours of Friday morning but it is unlikely that the official UK total will be officially declared until several hours later.
• The result may become clear before the final national result. If it is a close result it will take longer to know.
• As a guide, in the Scottish referendum (19 Sep 2014) the national running total of ‘No’ votes could not be beaten by 6.00am (15:00pm AEST). The official result was declared at 9.00am (18:00pm AEST).

Counting mechanics

• The count will be conducted in just fewer than 400 counting areas and individual counting areas vary in size. Declarations will be made from each counting area. The Chief Counting Officer will then collate 12 regional totals (inc Gibraltar and N. Ireland) and will declare the final UK and Gibraltar total at Manchester Town Hall.
• Counting area results should start streaming in from around 11:30am NZT, but the bulk of the results are likely to come in between 2pm and 3:30pm NZT. Doubtful or spoilt ballot papers and the need for verification could delay proceedings.
• NAB understands that right now there are no official exit polls planned, but there are reports that financial companies such as hedge funds may pay for their own exit poll. Either way the outcome of these polls must not be made public until after the polls close. This development could have implications for markets alongside the rolling individual local and regional count announcements.”