US: Labor market tighter - AmpGFX

The labor market is probably the most important indicator underpinning the Fed’s forecast for further policy tightening and Fed members including Yellen are now describing the labor market as tight, notes the analysis team at Amplifying Global FX Capital.

Key Quotes

“With many other economic indicators suggesting growth may be stalling, the onus will be even more on the labor data to sustain the Fed’s policy tightening regime.”

“Payrolls growth has slowed this year, averaging 121K over the last three months to May.  However, this slowdown may be indicative of a tightening labor market, with less suitable skilled workers to fill jobs.”

“Unemployment has fallen to 4.3%, below the Fed’s downwardly revised estimate of neutral unemployment of 4.6%.  Weekly unemployment claims 4-week moving average, at 245K in the 4-weeks to 16 June, is still arguably trending lower, although up from a low of 236K in the 4-weeks to 19 May.  The monthly payrolls data are due next week.”