Crude Oil to be quite volatile, trading in a fairly wide range of $90-$110 – BMO

The oil market remains on the razor’s edge, which is highlighted by relatively large price swings over the past week. Strategists at the Bank of Montreal expect oil prices to hover around a wide $90-$110 range.

Oil market to experience more major twists and turns in the coming months

“We expect the price of crude oil to be quite volatile, trading in a fairly wide range, say $90-$110/bbl or so, unless there is a major development that could lead to a sharp break-out to the up or downside.”

“Key downside scenarios of which we need to be mindful are: A sudden end to the war with a long-lasting peace agreement. Global oil supply picks up significantly, especially among non-OPEC+ countries. Global oil demand contracts sharply in response to monetary tightening by the world’s major central banks.”

“Upside risks essentially revolve around the following: EU sanctions on Russian imports of crude oil. The West imposes secondary sanctions on countries that continue to purchase Russian crude oil. A sharp decline in OPEC+ production as Russian output, in particular, is under pressure.”